IkeqIkeq

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.

The Two Corridors

On Saturday, new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first direct public statement vowing 'revenge' for his father's death. Trump, on Truth Social Friday, said '1,000 missiles locked and loaded' aimed at Iran and 'orders have been given' to destroy Iran within a year. Yet Trump also 'agreed to Iran's proposal to continue negotiations.' Iran said it has 'rejected the US's request for negotiations.' Iran FM Araghchi visited Oman in Muscat on Saturday. Oman proposed a TWO-CORRIDOR Hormuz plan: southern lane through Omani waters = free navigation per pre-war conditions; northern lane through Iranian waters = requires prior Iran approval but no fees. Both lanes open. Qatar also involved. A 'central corridor' in international waters is also under discussion. US technical team in contact but did not send negotiators. The deal is, on Saturday evening, the document the two corridors are being publicly designed on — in the middle of a war that both sides are publicly threatening to escalate and publicly continuing to negotiate.
Jul 12, 2026

The Green Light

On Friday, Israeli public broadcaster reported that Israel has offered to join US strikes on Iran and is waiting for Trump's decision. Netanyahu, at an IAF pilot graduation on 7/9, said Israel killed 20 Iranian nuclear scientists and shattered Iran's ballistic missile production in the past year, and unveiled a 350B shekel ($79B) 10-year defense budget. Iran is institutionalizing calls to avenge Khamenei in weekly Friday prayers. US strikes killed 3 IRGC members in Khuzestan and 3 fishermen / injured 15 on a southern Iran fishing pier. Iran called US railway bridge strikes 'blatant war crimes.' CENTCOM says it has helped 800+ vessels transit Hormuz since May. Iran fast-tracks 11M barrels of oil as Trump threatens blockade. A Qatari official: US-Iran strikes 'put into question' key parts of the MOU. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document the green light is being publicly asked for.
Jul 11, 2026

The Strait Closes

On Thursday, day 6 of the state funeral, the body of Khamenei was buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad while the US struck Iran's Bushehr province including the area around the Bushehr nuclear power plant, and hit the Agtelekh railway bridge in northern Iran with cruise missiles. CENTCOM has now hit ~170 Iranian targets in 48 hours. IRGC responded with 10 ballistic missiles at US command/control centers and Jordan's Azraq air base, and drones at Kuwait Patriot systems, Qatar US satellite antennas, Bahrain fuel storage. Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian missiles. Hormuz Strait traffic fell to 5 transits overnight Wed-Thu with only 1 leaving Persian Gulf — southern corridor effectively abandoned, risk level 'critical.' Israeli Defense Minister Katz: IDF ready for 'third action.' Iran buried its leader. The deal's central pillar — open Hormuz — is, on Thursday evening, functionally closed.
Jul 10, 2026

The Deal Is Over

On Wednesday, Trump declared the MOU 'over' at the NATO summit in Ankara. CENTCOM launched a second wave of strikes on Iran — even larger than Tuesday's. The IRGC hit 85 US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in a single day, shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone, and Iran declared all US bases in the Middle East 'legitimate targets.' Khalibaf listed 5 US violations. Araghchi: 'if struck, double retaliation.' A Qatari LNG tanker (Al Rekayyat) and a Saudi-flagged crude tanker were hit near Hormuz. Kuwait air defense intercepted missiles and drones. Lebanon deaths since March 2: 4,320. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document Trump said is over, and the document Iran is showing is over, on the same day.
Jul 9, 2026

The Funeral and the Bombs

On Tuesday, the day the body of Khamenei arrived in Qom for the funeral's day 4, CENTCOM began a 'series of powerful' strikes on Iran — 4-5x the scale of 10 days ago — targeting air defense, coastal surveillance, SAMs, anti-ship missiles, and drone launch sites. 6 explosions hit Qeshm Island, 7 hit Sirik, Bandar Abbas was struck. Iran said the US has violated MOU Articles 1, 2, and 10, and the IRGC struck 3 commercial ships in Hormuz. Pezeshkian cut short his Iraq trip and returned home. Netanyahu publicly opposed the US F-35 sale to Turkey at the NATO summit. Mourners at the funeral called for vengeance on Trump. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral and the bombs are publicly running on.
Jul 8, 2026
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