A signing ceremony has been pencilled in, then cancelled, then re-pencilled in. The Israeli cabinet meets Sunday evening to formally reject the deal. And the news buried at the bottom of the Saturday file is the one the market has not yet priced: in May, the U.S. had a plan on the table to send ground troops into Iran to seize the 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium by force. Trump rejected it. The MOU is the other option.

The MOU is now public, and it is not the document either Washington or Tel Aviv described on Thursday. It commits the U.S. to forcing Israel out of Lebanon. It denies the U.S. a role in the Strait of Hormuz. It defers the nuclear file to a 60-day post-signing negotiation. Netanyahu has, in public, refused it.

A deal is done. The deal is not done. Both statements are now on the record, attributed to the two sides of the same negotiation. The President says it will be signed in Europe this weekend. The Iranian side says the document it would be signing does not exist yet.

Two days after Israel and Iran agreed to stop shooting at each other, the United States opened a second front against Tehran — and the President of the United States, in a live phone interview from the Situation Room, refused to say it would be the last.

Israel and Iran stopped shooting. The reason they stopped is the same reason the deal is not yet real: Lebanon, Lebanon, Lebanon. And a president who has now told the press that peace is imminent thirty-seven times.