On Saturday, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, then took the plane to Switzerland. Trump retreated to Camp David. Vance took off for Burgenstock. By Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired ~50 projectiles at IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon and Israel killed at least 16. The MOU's first 72 hours have produced the cleanest test of the deal's architecture: Iran weaponized 20% of global oil supply as a negotiating tool, and the US is now negotiating from a position in which the document it signed is one Iranian announcement away from collapse.

On Friday, the ceremony did not happen. The MOU was in force. The Burgenstock talks were cancelled by Swiss MFA, then re-announced as a separate Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by Trump at 4pm ET. The deal survived its first 24 hours. The part of the deal that mattered most — the one about Lebanon — had to be rescued by a different document, written in a different capital, by a different set of hands. The market is repricing. The President is now writing two peace processes at once, on different paper, with different signatories, neither of which is the document he wanted to celebrate on Friday.

On Wednesday, the US-Iran MOU was signed by both presidents. The full text was released. Iran will earn $60 billion a year in oil. The market is pricing the deal. The three things the President dropped to get it — Iran's ballistic missiles, the Israeli military operation in Lebanon, and Benjamin Netanyahu's confidence in him — are not yet priced. The Versailles signing was the easy part. The Versailles sequel, in which the third party absorbs what was given up, is the part that has not started.

On Tuesday, three things happened on the same day that the US-Iran deal had been alive for less than 96 hours. Iranian tankers crossed Hormuz. Israeli drones killed four people in southern Lebanon. The President of the United States told the G7, on camera, that Israel would not exist without him. The deal is real. The deal's premises are being tested in real time. The day the first tankers moved was the day the US publicly broke with Israel.

On Monday, the United States and Iran began Phase 2 of a deal neither of them has finished Phase 1 of. Iran is counting eighty-four Israeli ceasefire violations in southern Lebanon. Tanker operators say the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen for weeks. The MOU is in force. The document is being honoured only in the parts each signatory chose to honour.