IkeqIkeq

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.

The MOU Is Scrapped

On Sunday, Trump officially scrapped the MOU. CENTCOM launched its third round of strikes on Iran in a week, hitting ~140 targets. IRGC shot the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy in Hormuz, and Iran then CLOSED the Strait of Hormuz INDEFINITELY 'until US stops interference.' Iran struck US bases in FOUR countries in one day: Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Duqm Port in Oman (first time), Kuwait Patriot air defense and radar, Bahrain comms and radar. Jordan's Azraq air base intercepted 8 Iranian missiles. Ghalibaf: 'Era of unilateral agreements is over.' Iran-Oman consultations continuing on Hormuz. The deal is, on Sunday evening, the document Trump publicly scrapped and Iran publicly scrapped by closing the Strait indefinitely.
Jul 13, 2026

The Two Corridors

On Saturday, new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first direct public statement vowing 'revenge' for his father's death. Trump, on Truth Social Friday, said '1,000 missiles locked and loaded' aimed at Iran and 'orders have been given' to destroy Iran within a year. Yet Trump also 'agreed to Iran's proposal to continue negotiations.' Iran said it has 'rejected the US's request for negotiations.' Iran FM Araghchi visited Oman in Muscat on Saturday. Oman proposed a TWO-CORRIDOR Hormuz plan: southern lane through Omani waters = free navigation per pre-war conditions; northern lane through Iranian waters = requires prior Iran approval but no fees. Both lanes open. Qatar also involved. A 'central corridor' in international waters is also under discussion. US technical team in contact but did not send negotiators. The deal is, on Saturday evening, the document the two corridors are being publicly designed on — in the middle of a war that both sides are publicly threatening to escalate and publicly continuing to negotiate.
Jul 12, 2026

The Green Light

On Friday, Israeli public broadcaster reported that Israel has offered to join US strikes on Iran and is waiting for Trump's decision. Netanyahu, at an IAF pilot graduation on 7/9, said Israel killed 20 Iranian nuclear scientists and shattered Iran's ballistic missile production in the past year, and unveiled a 350B shekel ($79B) 10-year defense budget. Iran is institutionalizing calls to avenge Khamenei in weekly Friday prayers. US strikes killed 3 IRGC members in Khuzestan and 3 fishermen / injured 15 on a southern Iran fishing pier. Iran called US railway bridge strikes 'blatant war crimes.' CENTCOM says it has helped 800+ vessels transit Hormuz since May. Iran fast-tracks 11M barrels of oil as Trump threatens blockade. A Qatari official: US-Iran strikes 'put into question' key parts of the MOU. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document the green light is being publicly asked for.
Jul 11, 2026

The Strait Closes

On Thursday, day 6 of the state funeral, the body of Khamenei was buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad while the US struck Iran's Bushehr province including the area around the Bushehr nuclear power plant, and hit the Agtelekh railway bridge in northern Iran with cruise missiles. CENTCOM has now hit ~170 Iranian targets in 48 hours. IRGC responded with 10 ballistic missiles at US command/control centers and Jordan's Azraq air base, and drones at Kuwait Patriot systems, Qatar US satellite antennas, Bahrain fuel storage. Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian missiles. Hormuz Strait traffic fell to 5 transits overnight Wed-Thu with only 1 leaving Persian Gulf — southern corridor effectively abandoned, risk level 'critical.' Israeli Defense Minister Katz: IDF ready for 'third action.' Iran buried its leader. The deal's central pillar — open Hormuz — is, on Thursday evening, functionally closed.
Jul 10, 2026

The Deal Is Over

On Wednesday, Trump declared the MOU 'over' at the NATO summit in Ankara. CENTCOM launched a second wave of strikes on Iran — even larger than Tuesday's. The IRGC hit 85 US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in a single day, shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone, and Iran declared all US bases in the Middle East 'legitimate targets.' Khalibaf listed 5 US violations. Araghchi: 'if struck, double retaliation.' A Qatari LNG tanker (Al Rekayyat) and a Saudi-flagged crude tanker were hit near Hormuz. Kuwait air defense intercepted missiles and drones. Lebanon deaths since March 2: 4,320. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document Trump said is over, and the document Iran is showing is over, on the same day.
Jul 9, 2026
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