On Thursday, WTI crude fell to $68.96 — its lowest since February 27 — as the Doha talks went well, per Trump. But the MOU's clean market signal collided with the MOU's structural reality. A foreign container ship ran aground in Hormuz after straying from Iran's approved route. Mojtaba Khamenei purged the powerful judiciary chief Eghei. Kurdish fighters ignited multiple fronts inside Iran. US-Saudi relations hit their worst tension in years after Riyadh torpedoed Trump's Hormuz operation. The market priced the procedural track. The operational track produced a ship, a purge, an insurgency, and a fracture. Two clocks, two tempos, one document.

On Wednesday, US and Iran held their first Doha indirect talks. Three working groups — nuclear, diplomacy, financing and frozen funds — convened with Qatar and Pakistan as mediators. The procedural framework is alive. On the same day, Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the IDF will stay 'indefinitely' in security zones in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. The US will station ground troops in Lebanon and Israel to monitor the framework agreement. Lebanon's death toll since March 2: 4,297 dead, 12,196 wounded. The MOU's 60-day clock is running on a procedural track in Doha. The Lebanon track is being run by Israel and the US on the ground. Two clocks, two tracks, two different tempos.

On Monday, Iran's President Pezeshkian announced $6 billion of frozen Qatari assets will be released — the MOU's first concrete financial delivery. Iran and Oman held their first joint working group meeting on Hormuz 'future management.' Iran declared it will handle Strait demining unilaterally, rejected parallel routes, and insisted all ships follow the 'Iranian route.' Israeli Defense Minister Katz told a closed-door briefing that Israel has selected targets in Iran and is ready for an independent strike — 'tomorrow.' The market priced the financial delivery: oil plummeted, the dollar slid. The MOU's procedural framework is running on Pezeshkian's money and the Iranian route. The MOU's operational implementation is being run by Iran on Iran's terms.

On Monday, the US and Iran both said the kinetic activity had stopped — and then issued conflicting statements about Doha. Trump wrote that Iran had 'requested a meeting' that would take place 'tomorrow' in Doha. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said no meeting was scheduled. Israel's Defense Minister Katz warned a new war could erupt 'within 48 hours' if Iran fires missiles at Israel. Iran's $6 billion in frozen Qatari assets is on the table. The MOU's procedural framework is now running on two parallel tracks: the US-Iran technical track in Doha, and the Israel-Hezbollah operational track in southern Lebanon. Both tracks are, on Monday, structurally tested by their own internal contradictions.

On Sunday, the US and Iran agreed to halt all kinetic activity and resume peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. The deal had survived its first strike-for-strike cycle. Oman stepped in diplomatically with Macron to support demining and Hormuz safe passage. Republicans, per Axios, began turning against Netanyahu. Rubio intervened to bring the US back to 'sanity' on Lebanon. Dubai airport received its first flight from Tehran since the war began. The MOU's first weekend of mutual strikes ended with the parties agreeing to keep talking — and a market priced the renewed dialogue at oil below $70.