On Tuesday, Iran formally claimed sole control of the Strait of Hormuz — and warned its neighbors. Iran's army spokesperson said control of the waterway could generate revenue equal to twice Iran's oil income. The same spokesperson said Iran will not allow US weaponry to transit the strait to regional bases. Iraqi FM Araghchi met in Tehran. Burgenstock talks, per mediators, have stalled on the procedural framework. The MOU's first week is producing, in the technical sense, the document Iran wants the post-war order to look like.

On Monday, the first Burgenstock session closed with mediators' joint statement. 60-day roadmap. Shipping mechanism. The MOU's procedural skeleton now exists. Lebanon's first ceasefire violation happened within 24 hours of the Friday ceasefire — sound bombs over Nabatieh, tank fire at Hadatha. The deal's two clocks, the procedural and the operational, started running on different tracks. The procedural clock is in the mediators' statement. The operational clock is in southern Lebanon.

On Sunday, the first 18 hours of US-Iran talks at Burgenstock produced the cleanest result the deal could have produced without breaking. Mediators announced a 60-day roadmap. Shipping mechanisms. No breakthrough on Lebanon. The 60-day clock the MOU set in motion on Wednesday now has a parallel diplomatic mechanism to run on. The Hezbollah military wing rejected the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire renewal, calling it futile. Khamenei's funeral preparations are underway. The market held. The deal survived its first full weekend without breaking.

On Saturday, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, then took the plane to Switzerland. Trump retreated to Camp David. Vance took off for Burgenstock. By Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired ~50 projectiles at IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon and Israel killed at least 16. The MOU's first 72 hours have produced the cleanest test of the deal's architecture: Iran weaponized 20% of global oil supply as a negotiating tool, and the US is now negotiating from a position in which the document it signed is one Iranian announcement away from collapse.

On Friday, the ceremony did not happen. The MOU was in force. The Burgenstock talks were cancelled by Swiss MFA, then re-announced as a separate Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by Trump at 4pm ET. The deal survived its first 24 hours. The part of the deal that mattered most — the one about Lebanon — had to be rescued by a different document, written in a different capital, by a different set of hands. The market is repricing. The President is now writing two peace processes at once, on different paper, with different signatories, neither of which is the document he wanted to celebrate on Friday.