On Thursday, day 6 of the state funeral, the body of Khamenei was buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad while the US struck Iran’s Bushehr province including the area around the Bushehr nuclear power plant, and hit the Agtelekh railway bridge in northern Iran with cruise missiles. CENTCOM has now hit ~170 Iranian targets in 48 hours. IRGC responded with 10 ballistic missiles at US command/control centers and Jordan’s Azraq air base, and drones at Kuwait Patriot systems, Qatar US satellite antennas, Bahrain fuel storage. Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian missiles. Hormuz Strait traffic fell to 5 transits overnight Wed-Thu with only 1 leaving Persian Gulf — southern corridor effectively abandoned, risk level “critical.” Israeli Defense Minister Katz: IDF ready for “third action.” Netanyahu and Trump held a coordination call. Iran buried its leader. The deal’s central pillar — an open Hormuz — is, on Thursday evening, functionally closed.
The Bushehr strikes
US forces, on Thursday, struck Iran’s Bushehr province including areas around the Bushehr nuclear power plant, per Iran’s Mehr News Agency. CENTCOM said the Thursday wave struck 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, coastal surveillance, missile and drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure on the coast. CENTCOM said over the past 48 hours, US forces have struck 170 Iranian targets. The US also hit the Agtelekh railway bridge in northeastern Iran with cruise missiles, per US officials. The Bushehr strike is, in the technical sense, the first sustained US military operation targeting infrastructure adjacent to an Iranian nuclear facility since the war began. The MOU’s framework commits to a return to the nuclear deal. The MOU’s framework is, on Thursday evening, the document the US is publicly violating by striking infrastructure adjacent to the nuclear facility the MOU commits to bringing back into the deal.
The Bushehr strike is also, structurally, the first US strike on northern Iran since the war began. All previous strikes had been on southern coastal targets (Sirik, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm). The Bushehr strike is in southern Iran but is the deepest strike to date, and the Agtelekh railway bridge strike is the first strike on northeastern Iran. The MOU is, on Thursday evening, the document the US is publicly walking around by striking Iran’s north, northeast, and south in a single 48-hour window.
The IRGC’s 4-country counter-strike
Iran’s IRGC, in a Thursday statement, said it launched 10 ballistic missiles at US “command and control centers in West Asia” and at Jordan’s Azraq air base. The IRGC also used drones to hit Kuwait’s US Patriot air defense system, Qatar’s US satellite antennas, and Bahrain’s US fuel storage facilities. Jordan’s Armed Forces, in a Thursday statement, said its air defense intercepted 8 Iranian missiles. Kuwait intercepted multiple missiles and drones. Qatar’s Interior Ministry triggered nationwide alerts. Bahrain’s air raid sirens sounded three times on Thursday. The IRGC’s 4-country strike is, in the technical sense, the first Iranian military operation that has spread beyond the GCC and into Jordan. Jordan was not previously a target in this war. The MOU is, on Thursday evening, the document Iran is publicly violating by striking four Arab states in a single day.
The Strait closes
The Strait of Hormuz saw only 5 transits overnight Wednesday-Thursday, with only 1 ship leaving the Persian Gulf, per Windward Maritime Analytics. The previous day saw 35 transits with 18 ships leaving; two days ago saw 51 transits with 35 ships leaving. The southern corridor of Hormuz has been effectively abandoned by ship operators — the first time since partial traffic resumed in mid-June that southern-corridor traffic has been substantially closed. Windward said the current risk level in Hormuz and surrounding waters is “critical.” The Strait’s closure is, in the technical sense, the structural collapse of the MOU’s central operational pillar. The MOU commits to Iran controlling Hormuz transit on the Iranian route, with international shipping continuing. The MOU’s framework is, on Thursday evening, the framework where international shipping has functionally stopped.
The Strait’s closure is also, structurally, the trigger for the global economic impact the MOU was supposed to prevent. Oil prices jumped 5% after Trump declared the MOU “over” on Wednesday. The Strait is now the operational cause of the oil price spike. The MOU is, on Thursday evening, the document the Strait’s closure has now broken on the operational ground. The deal was the document the Strait was supposed to stay open on. The deal is, on Thursday evening, the document the Strait’s closure has publicly broken.
The burial
Khamenei was buried on Thursday at the holy shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad, the eighth Imam of Shiite Muslims, in his hometown. The burial ended the 6-day state funeral that began on July 4. Vast crowds had attended Khamenei’s farewell in Iraq’s holy cities of Najaf and Karbala on Wednesday-Thursday, with more than 2.3 million attendees in Najaf alone per public reporting. Iran’s state media framed the burial as the conclusion of the post-MOU institutional transition, with Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. The burial is, in the technical sense, the public conclusion of the MOU’s institutional theater. The burial ended the public process. The burial ended the public unity spectacle. The burial is, on Thursday evening, the system’s last public act of the MOU’s framework period.
The burial is also, structurally, the public conclusion of the Iranian system’s strongest available unity claim. The system held the funeral for 6 days. The system buried the leader on day 6. The system is, on Thursday evening, the system whose public unity claim has just ended. The system is now, on Thursday evening, the system whose only remaining unity claim is the war footing that the system’s strikes and the US’s strikes are publicly producing.
Israel and the third action
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, on Thursday, said the IDF remains on high alert and is “prepared to resume military operations against Iran” — including what he called the “third” such action. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi (Zamir) said the IDF is “closely following developments in Iran and Lebanon” and is “ready to act immediately,” noting “hundreds of Israeli Air Force aircraft have been on standby in recent weeks.” Netanyahu, in a Thursday phone call with Trump, agreed to maintain coordination between the two countries across all areas. Trump briefed Netanyahu on the latest Gulf operations. Katz’s “third action” statement is, in the technical sense, the Israeli side’s first explicit public preparation for joining the US side’s current strike campaign against Iran. The MOU commits to “all-fronts ceasefire.” The MOU is, on Thursday evening, the document the Israeli side is publicly preparing to walk around by joining the US side’s third strike campaign against Iran.
Katz’s statement is also, structurally, the Israeli side’s first explicit public framing of the US strike campaign as a phased operation with the Israeli side as the next phase. The MOU’s framework is, on Thursday evening, the framework the Israeli side is publicly signaling is about to be walked around by Israeli action. The MOU is, on Thursday evening, the document the Israeli side is publicly preparing to walk around.
Trump’s rhetoric
Trump, in NATO summit remarks and a subsequent interview, called Iranian leaders “scum” and said “I just now figured them out.” Trump also said: “I don’t want to deal with Iran anymore.” Trump’s rhetoric is, in the diplomatic vocabulary, the US side’s most inflammatory public framing of the Iranian system in the MOU’s framework period. The MOU was negotiated in good faith between two sides. The MOU is, on Thursday evening, the document Trump is publicly framing as a document negotiated with “scum” he has “just now figured out.”
What this is, in one sentence
On Thursday, day 6 of the state funeral, the body of Khamenei was buried at Mashhad. The US struck Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant area and a northeastern railway bridge with cruise missiles, hitting 170 Iranian targets in 48 hours. The IRGC responded with 10 ballistic missiles at US command/control centers and Jordan’s Azraq air base, and drones at Kuwait’s Patriots, Qatar’s US satellite antennas, Bahrain’s US fuel storage. Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian missiles. Hormuz traffic fell to 5 transits, southern corridor abandoned, risk level “critical.” Israel declared it’s ready for a “third action.” The deal’s central pillar — an open Hormuz — is, on Thursday evening, functionally closed.
A burial is the public expression of a system’s completion of its public theater. A closed strait is the public expression of a system’s completion of its collapse. On Thursday, in the technical sense, Khamenei was buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, the US struck Bushehr province and the Agtelekh railway bridge in Iran’s northeast with cruise missiles, CENTCOM struck 170 Iranian targets in 48 hours, the IRGC struck US command/control centers and Jordan’s Azraq air base with 10 ballistic missiles and drones at Kuwait Patriot systems, Qatar US satellite antennas, and Bahrain US fuel storage, Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian missiles, Hormuz traffic fell to 5 overnight transits with 1 leaving the Gulf, Israel’s Defense Minister said the IDF is prepared for a “third action,” and Netanyahu and Trump agreed to maintain coordination. The burial is, on Thursday, the system’s completion of its public theater. The closed strait is, on Thursday, the system’s completion of its collapse. The deal is, on Thursday evening, the document the burial completed its public theater on and the closed strait has now functionally completed its collapse on. The deal is, on Thursday evening, the document the system’s public theater has been buried and its operational ground has been sealed. The deal is, on Thursday evening, the document the burial ended and the strait closed. The deal is, on Thursday evening, the document the funeral is over and the war is on.
— Mr. White