On Friday, Israeli public broadcaster reported that Israel has offered to join US strikes on Iran and is waiting for Trump’s decision. Netanyahu, at an IAF pilot graduation on Thursday, said Israel killed 20 Iranian nuclear scientists and shattered Iran’s ballistic missile production in the past year, and unveiled a 350-billion-shekel ($79B) 10-year defense budget. Iran is institutionalizing calls to avenge Khamenei in weekly Friday prayers. US strikes killed 3 IRGC members in Khuzestan and 3 fishermen / injured 15 on a southern Iran fishing pier. Iran called US railway bridge strikes “blatant war crimes.” CENTCOM says it has helped 800+ vessels transit Hormuz since May. Iran is fast-tracking 11 million barrels of oil as Trump threatens blockade. A Qatari official said US-Iran strikes have “put into question” key parts of the MOU. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document the green light is being publicly asked for.
The offer
Israeli public broadcaster, on Friday, reported that Israel has formally offered to join US military strikes on Iran and is waiting for Trump’s response. The Israeli side believes the new US-Iran military conflict could continue for several more days. The Israeli Air Force, air defense, and intelligence services are on high alert, and the IDF is in close coordination with the US military. The offer is, in the technical sense, the Israeli side’s first explicit public request to join the US side’s current strike campaign against Iran. The MOU commits to “all-fronts ceasefire.” The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the Israeli side is publicly asking to walk around by joining the US side’s strike campaign.
The offer is also, structurally, the threshold moment of the post-MOU framework period. Until Friday, the MOU was being walked around unilaterally by the US side. As of Friday, the MOU is being walked around by both the US side and the Israeli side, jointly. The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the post-MOU framework is being publicly asked to be walked around by two signatories together. The MOU’s framework is, on Friday evening, the framework whose “all-fronts ceasefire” is being publicly asked to be replaced by a “all-fronts war” by the two signatories that were supposed to honor the ceasefire.
Netanyahu’s accounting
Netanyahu, in a Thursday speech at an Israeli Air Force pilot graduation ceremony, said Israel killed 20 Iranian nuclear scientists and “shattered” Iran’s ballistic missile production in the past year. Netanyahu said: “The war has not ended. New challenges are constantly emerging.” Netanyahu also unveiled a 350-billion-shekel ($79B) defense budget addition over 10 years, with a significant portion for the air force and for developing Israel’s domestic defense industry to reduce dependence on foreign procurement. Netanyahu’s accounting is, in the technical sense, the Israeli side’s first explicit public statement of its strikes on Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile program since the MOU was signed. The MOU commits to a return to the nuclear deal. The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the Israeli side is publicly framing as a document the Israeli side has been violating for the past year — including by killing 20 nuclear scientists.
Iran’s institutional response
Iran’s regime, on Friday, announced that weekly Friday prayers will now permanently include calls to avenge the death of Khamenei. The institutionalization of vengeance is, in the technical sense, the Iranian system’s first public signal that the system is preparing the public for a sustained war footing rather than a temporary escalation. The regime is, on Friday evening, publicly preparing the Iranian public for a multi-year war. The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the Iranian system is publicly preparing the public to walk around by institutionalizing war footing in the Friday prayer schedule.
Iran also fast-tracked 11 million barrels of oil exports as Trump threatened a renewed naval blockade. The fast-track is, structurally, the Iranian system’s first explicit public signal that the system is preparing for a long-term loss of Hormuz access by accelerating oil sales now. The MOU commits to Hormuz access. The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the Iranian system is publicly preparing to walk around by selling oil before a blockade closes the Strait.
Civilian and military casualties
US strikes on Friday killed 3 IRGC members in Iran’s Khuzestan province, per Iranian state media. US strikes also killed 3 fishermen and injured 15 on a southern Iran fishing pier. Iranian officials also said the US strike on a railway bridge in northeastern Iran constituted a “blatant war crime.” The civilian and military casualties are, in the technical sense, the post-MOU framework’s first publicly reported deaths of Iranian fishermen by US strikes. The MOU commits to “all-fronts ceasefire.” The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the US side is publicly walking around by killing Iranian fishermen and IRGC members in Iranian territory.
The Qatari question
A Qatari official, on Friday, said US-Iran strikes have “put into question” key parts of the MOU. Qatar is the MOU’s primary mediator. The Qatari statement is, in the technical sense, the MOU’s primary mediator’s first explicit public statement that the MOU’s key parts are now in question. The mediator is, on Friday evening, publicly signaling that the document the mediator is mediating is in question. The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the mediator is publicly saying is in question.
The Qatari statement is also, structurally, the first formal public signal from the MOU’s mediation track that the mediation track is in trouble. The MOU’s framework is held by the US, Iran, Qatar, and Pakistan. Qatar is, on Friday evening, the framework’s first public defector. The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the framework’s first signatory has publicly walked around by publicly saying the framework’s key parts are in question.
The US side
CENTCOM, on Friday, said it has helped more than 800 vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz since May. The disclosure is, in the technical sense, the US side’s first explicit public accounting of its Hormuz transit operations since the MOU was signed. The US side is, on Friday evening, publicly claiming credit for the small amount of Hormuz traffic that has continued under MOU framework. The MOU’s framework is, on Friday evening, the framework the US side is publicly taking credit for — while also walking around it with strikes.
The US and Iran also continue technical talks, per a US official cited by ABC News on Friday, despite the strikes. The structural fact that the MOU’s procedural track is continuing while the MOU’s operational track is being publicly violated by both sides is, in the diplomatic vocabulary, the MOU’s first formal public split between procedural and operational tracks. The MOU is, on Friday evening, the document the procedural track is publicly running on and the operational track is publicly being walked around.
Lebanon and Rome
The US, per Friday reporting, is pushing Israel to begin a “pilot withdrawal” from southern Lebanon ahead of a new round of framework talks to be hosted in Rome. The Lebanon framework deal was signed in Washington on June 26. The pilot withdrawal is, in the technical sense, the first concrete operational signal of the framework deal being implemented on the ground in Lebanon. The framework deal commits to IDF withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The framework deal’s framework is, on Friday evening, the framework the US side is publicly pushing the Israeli side to start implementing.
The Israel-Lebanon framework deal’s implementation is, structurally, running on a different clock from the Iran MOU’s collapse. The Lebanon framework deal was signed June 26. The Iran MOU was signed June 17. The two frameworks are, on Friday evening, running in opposite directions — the Iran MOU is collapsing, the Lebanon framework deal is being implemented. The two frameworks are, on Friday evening, the documents the post-MOU regional order is publicly running on in opposite directions.
What this is, in one sentence
On Friday, Israel publicly offered to join US strikes on Iran and is waiting for Trump’s decision. Netanyahu said Israel killed 20 Iranian nuclear scientists and unveiled a $79B defense budget. Iran is institutionalizing vengeance in Friday prayers. US strikes killed 3 IRGC and 3 fishermen. A Qatari official said the strikes have put MOU key parts in question. CENTCOM helped 800+ vessels transit Hormuz. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document the green light is being publicly asked for, the document the mediator is publicly saying is in question, the document the procedural track is publicly running on and the operational track is publicly walking around, and the document the post-MOU regional order is publicly running on in opposite directions — with the Iran MOU collapsing and the Lebanon framework being implemented.
An offer is the public expression of a position that the document must be replaced. A green light is the public expression of a position that the document will be replaced. On Friday, in the technical sense, Israel publicly offered to join US strikes on Iran, Netanyahu said Israel killed 20 Iranian nuclear scientists, Iran institutionalized vengeance in Friday prayers, US strikes killed 3 IRGC and 3 fishermen, a Qatari official said the MOU is in question, CENTCOM said it helped 800+ vessels transit Hormuz, and the US is pushing Israel to start a pilot withdrawal from southern Lebanon ahead of Rome talks. The offer is, on Friday, the public expression of the Israeli side’s position that the MOU must be replaced. The green light is, on Friday, the public expression of the US side’s decision the MOU will be replaced. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document the offer is being publicly made on and the green light is being publicly asked for. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document two signatories are publicly asking to be replaced. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document the offer and the green light are being publicly asked on. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document the post-MOU regional order is publicly running on while the offer and the green light are being publicly asked on the document. The deal is, on Friday evening, the document two systems are publicly preparing to walk around together.
— Mr. White