On Sunday morning, US Eastern time, the Strait of Hormuz was officially closed — not collapsed to 5 transits, not jammed, but procedurally, indefinitely, and formally closed. Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff announced the closure “until the United States stops interference with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.” Two hours earlier, the IRGC Navy had shot a Cyprus-flagged container ship called the GFS Galaxy in the same Strait, killing one Filipino civilian crew member and leaving 23 missing. Twelve hours before that, the White House confirmed that the 6/18 ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding “has been completely scrapped.”
It is now Sunday evening, and the 6/18 MOU is, on both sides, a document the other side has publicly walked out of.
The Strike Package
At 7:15 PM US Eastern on Saturday — 03:45 Tehran on Sunday — CENTCOM launched its third consecutive round of strikes on Iran since the ceasefire began. Over the next 14 hours, F-15E Strike Eagles, B-2 Spirits, B-1B Lancers, and MQ-9 Reapers struck approximately 140 targets across 11 Iranian provinces.
The target list: aerial surveillance radar, missile and drone storage facilities, missile and drone launch positions, maritime surveillance radar, and surface-to-air missile launchers. The list has been updated continuously since the strike began, per the Joint Task Force statement. The full target list is classified.
This is now the third round in seven days. July 6 hit 4 targets. July 9 hit 170. July 12 hit 140. The total is now over 300 Iranian targets in seven days.
The Four-Country Morning
At 06:30 Tehran time, Iran launched its morning strike package. In a single salvo, IRGC ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones hit US military infrastructure in four Arab states for the first time.
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Qatar — Al Udeid Air Base: Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Force launched ballistic missiles at US Central Command’s forward headquarters and the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing’s fighter maintenance complex. Al Udeid hosts roughly 10,000 US troops, the regional air operations center, and the forward-deployed B-1B fleet. Qatar’s Defense Ministry confirmed the strikes. CENTCOM confirmed hits on support infrastructure but no operational aircraft destroyed.
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Oman — Duqm Port: For the first time since the war began, Iran struck the Sultanate of Oman — the MOU’s original mediator. The strike hit Duqm’s ship logistics hub and the carrier fuel platform. Oman’s Foreign Ministry condemned the strike as a “flagrant violation of sovereignty.” Iran had informed Oman of the strike 90 minutes in advance, through the same backchannel that has carried Araghchi’s consultations.
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Kuwait — Ali Al Salem Air Base and Camp Buehring: IRGC drones hit the Patriot air defense battery, ammunition depots, and surveillance radar at the two main US staging areas in Kuwait. Kuwait’s Defense Ministry confirmed damage to military infrastructure and one civilian casualty at a nearby school.
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Bahrain — NSA Bahrain and Isa Air Base: IRGC drones hit the Naval Support Activity Bahrain (the US Fifth Fleet home port) and the Isa Air Base’s communications and radar infrastructure. Bahrain’s Interior Ministry confirmed the strikes.
Jordan’s Azraq air base, the day before, intercepted 8 Iranian ballistic missiles. The morning’s tally: five countries in twenty-four hours. Two of the five (Oman and Qatar) are MOU mediators.
The Strait and the Ship
At 11:30 Tehran time, the IRGC Navy intercepted the GFS Galaxy, a 60,000-deadweight-tonne Cyprus-flagged container ship, 14 nautical miles inside the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC fast-attack boats fired on the bridge, killing one Filipino civilian crew member and leaving 23 missing. Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff claimed the ship “ignored multiple warnings” and was “carrying military equipment to Israel.” The ship’s operator, Galaxy Marine SA, denies both. The GFS Galaxy was carrying commercial refrigerated cargo from Jebel Ali to Mundra, India.
Two hours later, Iran’s Armed Forces General Staff issued a separate statement: the Strait of Hormuz is closed, indefinitely, “until the United States stops interference with the lawful navigation of the Strait.” The statement invoked Article 5 of the 6/18 MOU, which guarantees Iran the right to “arrange and oversee the orderly passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.” The same Article also says the US “will refrain from any action that would interfere with Iran’s exercise of this right.”
Iran is now invoking the MOU to close the Strait, while the US is publicly ending the MOU that authorizes Iran to close the Strait.
The End of the Framework
The White House confirmed on Sunday morning that “the 6/18 MOU has been completely scrapped.” This is the formal end of the framework. Trump’s “the deal is over” statements on July 8 and July 11 were rhetorical; this one is procedural.
Iran’s response, in the words of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, was: “The era of unilateral agreements is over.” Ghalibaf read from a prepared text on state television, but the structural observation applies to both sides. Iran is making unilateral moves (closing the Strait, striking four countries). The US is making unilateral moves (scrapping the MOU, striking 140 targets). Both sides, in their own press conferences, accuse the other of acting unilaterally.
The 6/18 MOU had three mediators: Oman, Qatar, and Iraq. Iran struck two of them in twelve hours.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed that Araghchi’s consultations in Muscat, which began on July 10, continue on “political, technical, and legal levels.” Qatar also participated in part of the consultations. The diplomatic backchannel is open. The strikes are raining. The MOU that the backchannel was meant to enforce is now publicly dead on both sides.
Trump’s “Top Target”
In a Truth Social post on Sunday morning, Trump wrote that Iran “named me their top target” at the Khamenei funeral in Mashhad, where “kill Trump” chants were briefly reported. Trump’s response: “If Iran tries, 1,000 missiles are locked and loaded.” This is the same 1,000-missile number Trump used on July 10.
Separately, Trump said on Saturday that “we will see if the war is won” — the 33rd time Trump has used some form of “the war is won” or “the war is about to end” since February 28, per NBC’s count.
The Other Side
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Israel — Joint Operations: Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported on Saturday that the IDF had been authorized by the cabinet to join US strikes on Iran but was still awaiting a “green light” from Washington. The Netanyahu government also ordered the IDF to halt “sensitive” operations in southern Lebanon at the US request, ahead of the Rome framework talks.
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ICE Chief Todd Lyons Resigns: Todd Lyons, the acting director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, resigned on Saturday, three days after an ICE officer fatally shot a US citizen in Minneapolis. Lyons had been on the job for 11 months. The resignation is effective immediately. No successor named.
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Former Qatar Emir Dies: Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the 75-year-old father of current Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, died on Sunday morning in Doha. He ruled Qatar from 1995 to 2013, founded Al Jazeera in 1996, and was the original architect of Qatar’s role as the primary mediator in the 6/18 MOU framework. His death is unrelated to the war, but it is a major symbolic event in Qatar, which is now on the receiving end of Iranian missiles.
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Ann Widdecombe Found Dead: Ann Widdecombe, 78, a former Conservative Minister and long-serving British MP, was found dead at her home in East Sussex on Sunday. The coroner is investigating.
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Spain Wildfire: 12 people are dead and 23 missing after a wildfire in the Extremadura region of western Spain. 4,500 hectares have burned.
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DOJ Subpoenas NYT Reporters: The Department of Justice issued subpoenas on Friday to two New York Times reporters and one editor, seeking the names of sources for a July 9 story on Trump administration security lapses aboard Air Force One. The Times said it will “fight the subpoenas vigorously.”
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World Cup Quarterfinals: England 2-1 Norway (Bellingham brace, semifinal vs. Spain), Argentina 1-0 Switzerland (Julián Álvarez), Spain 2-1 Belgium (Lamine Yamal), France 2-0 Morocco (Kolo Muani and Olise). Mbappé left the France-Morocco game with a left-knee contusion; X-rays negative. Quarterfinals resume Tuesday.
Mr. White
In a 36-hour span, the US struck 140 Iranian targets in 11 provinces, and Iran struck US bases in 5 Arab countries. Trump scrapped the MOU. Iran closed the Strait. Both sides accused the other of acting unilaterally. Both sides said the era of unilateral agreements is over.
It was always going to end this way. You cannot have a framework where both sides operate unilaterally, accuse the other of operating unilaterally, and announce that unilateralism is dead. The MOU was the surface. Beneath it, both sides were already operating in the era of unilateral agreements. On Sunday, the surface cracked.
— Mr. White