On Wednesday, Trump declared the MOU “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara. CENTCOM launched a second wave of strikes on Iran — even larger than Tuesday’s. The IRGC hit 85 US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in a single day, shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone, and Iran declared all US bases in the Middle East “legitimate targets.” Parliament Speaker Khalibaf listed 5 US violations. Foreign Minister Araghchi said “if struck, double retaliation.” A Qatari LNG tanker (Al Rekayyat) and a Saudi-flagged crude tanker were hit near Hormuz. Kuwait’s air defense intercepted missiles and drones. Lebanon’s death toll since March 2: 4,320. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document Trump said is over, and the document Iran is showing is over, on the same day.
Trump’s declaration
Trump, in a Wednesday statement at the NATO summit in Ankara, declared: “I believe the MOU is ended. I’ll tell our negotiators.” Trump also said he might re-impose a naval blockade on Iran, and that he “doesn’t want to deal with Iran anymore.” Trump’s declaration is, in the technical sense, the first formal public termination of the MOU by the US side. The MOU was signed on June 17. The MOU’s first procedural cycle concluded on July 3. The MOU’s second cycle was scheduled to begin July 11. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the US side has publicly terminated two days before its own scheduled resumption.
Trump’s declaration is also, structurally, the US side’s first public admission that the MOU’s framework was not the document the US side intended to hold. The US side has, since June 17, framed the MOU as a peace deal. The MOU was, in the US side’s framing, the document that would end the war. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the US side is publicly saying is not a peace deal — the document the US side is publicly framing as over. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the US side has publicly disowned.
CENTCOM’s second wave
US Central Command, in a Wednesday statement, confirmed it had begun a “new round” of strikes on Iran — even larger than Tuesday’s wave. CENTCOM said the strikes targeted 80+ Iranian military positions including air defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile positions, and more than 60 IRGC small boats. The second wave is, in the technical sense, the first multi-day sustained US strike operation against Iran since the war began. The MOU was signed June 17 to end the war. The MOU’s first 21 days held the war in suspension. The MOU’s 22nd and 23rd days have produced a sustained US strike operation against Iran that the US side has now publicly declared the MOU does not cover. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the US side is publicly saying does not cover its own strike operation.
The IRGC’s 85 targets
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in a Wednesday statement, said it had struck 85 US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in a single day. The IRGC struck the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, the Ali Al-Salem air base in Kuwait, and Salman Port, in a joint missile and drone operation by the IRGC Navy and Aerospace Force. The IRGC also shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone that was “attempting to intervene in the operation.” Iran’s military, in a separate statement, declared all US military bases in the Middle East “legitimate targets” for Iranian drone strikes. The IRGC’s 85-target strike is, in the technical sense, the largest single-day Iranian military operation against US forces in the history of the post-1979 order.
Iran’s official response
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in a Wednesday statement, listed 5 US violations of the MOU: (1) destroying Iran’s arrangement for Hormuz Strait passage, (2) repeatedly threatening further strikes, (3) restoring oil sanctions, (4) attacking southern Iran, and (5) Israeli continued aggression in Lebanon. Ghalibaf said: “The era of bullying and extortion is over. This path will not work. We will not submit.” Ghalibaf’s statement is, in the technical sense, the Iranian system’s most senior legislator publicly framing the MOU as terminated by the US side, with the 5 violations cited as the structural cause.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a Wednesday statement, said “insulting language” against the Iranian people will not affect Iran’s position and dignity. Araghchi said Iran will respond with “firm, fearless action.” Araghchi’s statement is, in the diplomatic vocabulary, the Iranian system’s most senior diplomat publicly framing Trump’s declaration as a public insult that requires a public response.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, in a Wednesday statement, said the MOU was never based on trust but on a “commitment-for-commitment” mechanism, and that the US’s unilateral actions and military strikes have “actually destroyed the MOU’s overall framework.” Baghaei cited MOU Article 5, which assigns Iran responsibility for determining safe Hormuz passage, and said the US has challenged that article. Baghaei’s statement is, structurally, the first formal Iranian public declaration that the MOU’s framework has been destroyed by US actions.
Iran’s military, in a separate statement, said it is “ready to fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz” and will fully close Hormuz and respond at “at least double the scale” of any attack it receives. The Iranian military’s statement is, in the technical sense, the first formal public declaration that Iran is preparing to fully close the Strait of Hormuz — the central operational pillar of the MOU’s framework.
The Hormuz attacks
A Qatari LNG tanker, the Al Rekayyat, was hit on its port side and sent out distress signals, with a fire in its engine room putting the vessel at risk of explosion. Crews were being evacuated. A Saudi-flagged crude oil tanker was also damaged in the same attack. The Al Rekayyat attack is, in the technical sense, the first successful attack on a Qatari LNG vessel in the post-MOU framework period. Qatar is the MOU’s primary mediator. The Qatari LNG tanker was the first vessel the IRGC publicly attacked in this strike cycle. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the Iranian system is publicly attacking through the Qatari mediator’s own LNG tanker.
Kuwait and the regional spread
Kuwait’s air defense, in a Wednesday statement, said it is actively intercepting “hostile” missiles and drones targeting Kuwait, and the Kuwait Army General Staff confirmed the operation. Power outages hit parts of Kuwait after electrical transmission line failures caused by the strikes. Kuwait is, on Wednesday evening, the first GCC state whose territory is being actively struck by Iranian missiles and drones in the post-MOU framework period. The MOU was, in part, a framework for GCC-Iranian security. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the GCC’s first territorial strikes are running on.
Bahrain’s Interior Ministry, on Wednesday, said air raid sirens had sounded three times in Bahrain on Wednesday alone. Bahrain hosts the US Fifth Fleet headquarters. The IRGC’s strike on the Fifth Fleet headquarters is, structurally, the first direct Iranian military strike on a US Navy headquarters since the 1980s. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the Iranian system is publicly using to strike the US Navy’s regional headquarters.
The funeral moves
The body of Khamenei was in Qom on Wednesday, with the funeral’s day 5 events including processions in the holy city and preparation for transport to Mashhad for the July 9 burial at the holy shrine of Imam Reza. Mourning events also continued in Iraq’s holy Shiite cities of Najaf and Karbala. The funeral procession is, on Wednesday evening, the public theater the Iranian system is holding together while the IRGC strikes 85 US military facilities and the US strikes Iran’s coastal infrastructure. The funeral and the strikes are, on Wednesday evening, running on the same day. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document the funeral is publicly running on and the document the strikes are publicly destroying.
Lebanon
Lebanon’s Health Ministry, on Wednesday, reported that Israeli strikes since March 2 have killed 4,320 people and wounded 12,203 in Lebanon. Israel continued to strike south Lebanon (Nabatiyeh, Bint Jbeil) overnight. The framework deal signed in Washington on June 26 commits to “all-fronts ceasefire.” Lebanon is, on Wednesday evening, the second front the MOU’s framework is being publicly violated on — after Iran. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document two fronts are publicly violating.
The NATO summit and the regional response
The NATO summit in Ankara, July 7-8, formally designated Russia as a “long-term threat” to Euro-Atlantic security, with €70 billion in defense aid to Ukraine for 2026. France and Britain, in a separate meeting on the sidelines, outlined plans for a multinational maritime mission in the Strait of Hormuz, but diplomats said Iran’s rejection makes it “unlikely to break the deadlock.” Turkey detained at least 548 people in pre-summit operations. Trump held separate bilateral meetings with Zelensky and Syrian President al-Sharaa, both invited personally by Erdogan.
The NATO summit is, in the technical sense, the first post-MOU NATO summit — and the first NATO summit where the MOU’s framework is being publicly declared dead by the US side while NATO is publicly meeting in Ankara. The NATO summit’s regional response is, structurally, a multinational maritime mission in Hormuz that the Iranian system has publicly rejected. The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document NATO is publicly trying to replace.
What this is, in one sentence
On Wednesday, Trump declared the MOU “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara. CENTCOM launched a second wave of strikes on Iran. The IRGC struck 85 US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper, and declared all US bases “legitimate targets.” Khalibaf listed 5 US violations. Araghchi said “if struck, double retaliation.” A Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi crude tanker were hit near Hormuz. Kuwait’s air defense intercepted missiles and drones. Lebanon’s death toll since March 2: 4,320. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document Trump said is over, and the document Iran is showing is over, on the same day.
A declaration is the public expression of a position that the document no longer holds. A counter-strike is the public expression of a position that the document is being destroyed. On Wednesday, in the technical sense, Trump declared the MOU “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara, CENTCOM launched a second wave of strikes on Iran larger than Tuesday’s, the IRGC struck 85 US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in a single day and shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper, Iran declared all US Middle East bases “legitimate targets,” Parliament Speaker Khalibaf listed 5 US violations and said “we will not submit,” Foreign Minister Araghchi said “if struck, double retaliation,” a Qatari LNG tanker and a Saudi crude tanker were hit near Hormuz, Kuwait’s air defense intercepted missiles and drones, and Lebanon’s death toll since March 2 reached 4,320. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document Trump said is over, and the document Iran is showing is over. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document the US side is publicly terminating and the Iranian side is publicly showing is terminated. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document two systems are publicly terminating on the same day. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document Trump said is over and Iran is showing is over. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document the funeral procession is publicly running on and the 85 US military facilities are publicly running against. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, alive on the funeral clock and being destroyed on the strikes clock. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document the funeral is publicly running on and the strikes are publicly destroying. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, over.
— Mr. White