On Tuesday, the day the body of Khamenei arrived in Qom for the funeral’s day 4, CENTCOM began a “series of powerful” strikes on Iran — 4-5x the scale of 10 days ago — targeting air defense, coastal surveillance, SAMs, anti-ship missiles, and drone launch sites. Six explosions hit Qeshm Island, seven hit Sirik, Bandar Abbas was struck. Iran said the US has violated MOU Articles 1, 2, and 10, and the IRGC had struck three commercial ships in Hormuz. Pezeshkian cut short his Iraq trip and returned home. Netanyahu publicly opposed the US F-35 sale to Turkey at the NATO summit in Ankara. Mourners at the funeral called for vengeance on Trump. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral and the bombs are publicly running on.
The strikes
US Central Command, in a Tuesday statement on social media, announced that US forces had begun “a series of powerful” strikes against Iran in response to IRGC attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. A US official said the strike targets included Iranian air defense systems, coastal surveillance systems, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and drone launch sites. The same US official said the strikes’ scale and intensity are 4-5x the strikes the US launched 10 days ago, and added: “This is punishment. This won’t end soon.”
The strikes are, in the technical sense, the US side’s first major military operation against Iran since the MOU was signed on June 17. The MOU commits to “all-fronts ceasefire.” The strikes target Iran’s military infrastructure in five distinct categories. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the US side is publicly walking around by launching the first major military operation against Iran since the MOU was signed. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the US is publicly violating.
The strikes are also, structurally, the US side’s explicit framing of the operation as “punishment” rather than “response.” A US official told reporters: “This is not a reciprocal response. This is punishment.” The framing is, in the diplomatic vocabulary, the US side’s first public admission that the strikes are not a measured response to the IRGC’s Hormuz attacks, but a unilateral punishment operation the US is conducting on its own terms. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the US is publicly walking around by framing its strikes as “punishment” rather than “response.”
The funeral and the bombs
The body of Khamenei arrived in Qom on Tuesday, day 4 of the 6-day state funeral. Mourning events in Qom run through July 7, with burial in Mashhad scheduled for July 9. Mourners at the funeral, per public reporting, called for vengeance on Trump. The funeral procession is, in the technical sense, the public theater the Iranian system is holding together while the US is striking Iranian military infrastructure.
The funeral and the bombs are, on Tuesday evening, running on the same day. The funeral is in Qom. The bombs are on Qeshm, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas. The funeral and the bombs are, on Tuesday evening, the two tracks the MOU is being publicly run on. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral is publicly running on, and the document the bombs are publicly running on. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral and the bombs are publicly running on simultaneously.
Iran’s response
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a Tuesday statement, condemned the US strikes and the US Treasury’s revocation of Iran’s oil sanctions exemption, calling both “serious violations” of MOU Articles 1, 2, and 10. The MFA statement said the US, and Israel via the US, have repeatedly violated the MOU’s terms over the past 20 days — including through actions in Lebanon and through “threatening statements” against Iran. The statement said Iran has “acted in complete good faith and used its full capacity” to fulfill the MOU’s obligations, and warned the US that Iran will take “all measures necessary” to protect its national interests and security.
Iran’s deputy FM Gharibabadi, in a separate Tuesday statement, said the US revocation of Iran’s oil sanctions exemption is a “serious violation” of MOU Article 10, and the US military strikes are a “serious violation” of MOU Articles 1 and 2. Gharibabadi said that, in the past three weeks, the US has also violated MOU terms through Israeli actions in Lebanon and through threatening statements against Iran. Gharibabadi said Iran “seriously warns” the US of the consequences of broken commitments, and will take “decisive measures” to defend its interests.
Iran’s MFA and Gharibabadi’s statements are, in the technical sense, the Iranian system’s first formal public declaration that the MOU is being violated by the US side. The MOU commits to “all-fronts ceasefire.” The MOU commits to oil sanctions exemption. The MOU commits to negotiation in good faith. The Iranian system is, on Tuesday evening, publicly declaring that the US has violated all three commitments. The Iranian system is, on Tuesday evening, the system publicly walking away from the MOU’s premise that the US is negotiating in good faith.
The Iranian statements are also, structurally, the first formal public signal that the Iranian system is preparing the public ground for a renewed war footing. The system has held the funeral procession as the public theater. The system is now publicly declaring that the US has violated the MOU. The system is, on Tuesday evening, publicly preparing the Iranian public for a renewed war footing under the post-MOU framework.
Pezeshkian’s return
Iranian President Pezeshkian, who had just arrived in Iraq’s holy Shiite city of Najaf on Tuesday for Iraq’s mourning ceremony for Khamenei, abruptly left Iraq and returned to Iran after the US strikes. Pezeshkian was scheduled to attend Iraq’s mourning ceremony for Khamenei on Wednesday. The early return is, in the technical sense, the first concrete operational signal that the Iranian system’s most senior elected official is publicly treating the US strikes as an emergency. The Pezeshkian crisis that surfaced on Sunday is, on Tuesday, the crisis being operationalized by the US strikes. The Pezeshkian crisis and the US strikes are, on Tuesday, the system’s two structural facts being publicly run on the same day.
Netanyahu at the NATO summit
Netanyahu, in a Tuesday interview with CNN, publicly opposed the US sale of F-35 fighters or engines to Turkey, saying the sale “would not make Turkey a US friend” and would “break the power balance in the Middle East.” Netanyahu’s opposition comes as Trump attended the NATO summit in Ankara, met with Turkish President Erdogan, and announced he will decide on Turkey’s return to the F-35 program. Netanyahu also tried to downplay his rift with Trump: “He does what’s good for America, I do what’s crucial for Israel, and most of the time these are aligned.” On Iran, Netanyahu said: “Too early to say how things will develop. Trump believes he can stop Iran’s nuclear program through negotiations. I have doubts, but think he should be given a chance.”
Netanyahu’s intervention is, in the technical sense, the Israeli side’s first explicit public opposition to a US defense sale during the MOU’s framework period. The MOU commits to “all-fronts ceasefire.” The MOU does not commit to a US arms-sales policy. Netanyahu is, on Tuesday, publicly walking around the MOU’s framework by claiming the Israeli side’s right to influence US defense sales to third countries. The MOU is, on Tuesday, the document the Israeli side is publicly walking around by claiming a structural role in US foreign policy.
The New York Times also reported on Tuesday that Trump was furious with Netanyahu over Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and in a recent phone call told Netanyahu he was “crazy” for ordering the strikes. The report is, structurally, the first public confirmation that the Trump-Netanyahu relationship has publicly broken down to the point of personal insult. The MOU is, on Tuesday, the document the US-Israeli relationship is publicly breaking down over.
The deal, the funeral, and the bombs
The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral and the bombs are publicly running on. The funeral is in Qom. The bombs are on Qeshm, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas. The MOU is being violated by the US side. The MOU is being declared violated by the Iranian side. The Pezeshkian crisis is being operationalized. The Trump-Netanyahu relationship is publicly breaking down. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document six public violations are publicly running on.
The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, alive on the funeral clock and being destroyed on the operational clock. The funeral clock is alive. The operational clock is being destroyed. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, the document one clock is alive on and one clock is being destroyed on. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral is publicly holding together and the bombs are publicly tearing apart. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral and the bombs are publicly running on simultaneously. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral is publicly running on the funeral clock and the bombs are publicly running on the operational clock. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, alive on one clock and being destroyed on the other.
What this is, in one sentence
On Tuesday, day 4 of Khamenei’s funeral in Qom, CENTCOM launched 4-5x scale strikes on Iran, killing and damaging infrastructure at Qeshm, Sirik, and Bandar Abbas, in response to IRGC attacks on 3 commercial ships in Hormuz. Iran’s MFA formally declared the US has violated MOU Articles 1, 2, and 10. Pezeshkian cut short his Iraq trip and returned home. Netanyahu publicly opposed the US F-35 sale to Turkey at the NATO summit in Ankara. Mourners at the funeral called for vengeance on Trump. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral and the bombs are publicly running on. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, alive on the funeral clock and being destroyed on the operational clock.
A funeral is the public expression of a system’s claim of continuity. A bomb is the public expression of a system’s claim of punishment. On Tuesday, in the technical sense, CENTCOM began a “series of powerful” strikes on Iran — 4-5x the scale of 10 days ago — targeting air defense, coastal surveillance, SAMs, anti-ship missiles, and drone launch sites, with 6 explosions on Qeshm, 7 on Sirik, and Bandar Abbas struck. The IRGC struck 3 commercial ships in Hormuz. Iran’s MFA formally declared the US has violated MOU Articles 1, 2, and 10. Pezeshkian cut short his Iraq trip. Netanyahu opposed the F-35 sale to Turkey. Mourners at the funeral in Qom called for vengeance on Trump. The funeral is, on Tuesday, the public expression of the Iranian system’s claim of continuity. The bombs are, on Tuesday, the public expression of the US system’s claim of punishment. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral and the bombs are publicly running on. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the Iranian system is publicly holding together with the funeral and the document the US system is publicly tearing apart with the bombs. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document two systems are publicly running on in opposite directions. The MOU is, on Tuesday evening, the document the funeral is publicly running on the funeral clock and the bombs are publicly running on the operational clock. The deal is, on Tuesday evening, alive on one clock and being destroyed on the other.
— Mr. White