On Wednesday, US and Iran officials held their first indirect talks in Doha, Qatar. Three working groups convened. On the same day, Israel’s Defense Minister said the IDF will stay in Lebanon “indefinitely.” The two tracks are running on different clocks.
The Doha talks were, in the technical sense, the first operational session of the MOU’s 60-day nuclear clock. The talks were indirect, with the US delegation and the Iranian delegation communicating through Qatari and Pakistani mediators. Three working groups are in session: (1) nuclear, (2) diplomacy and foreign affairs, and (3) financing and the return of frozen funds. The working groups are, structurally, the operational track the MOU’s procedural framework was supposed to produce. The framework is, on Wednesday, producing the operational track.
Iran’s deputy FM Baghaei led the Iranian delegation, which included representatives from Iran’s Foreign Ministry and Central Bank. Baghaei met with Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman on Wednesday morning in Doha, with the agenda including the MOU’s implementation, frozen funds release, Hormuz maritime security, and the Lebanese ceasefire. Baghaei said after the meeting that Iran has formed working groups to follow up on the MOU’s implementation and to negotiate the final agreement, but formal negotiations have not yet begun. Iran, per Baghaei, is “continuing consultations through mediators to determine the time and place” for the working groups’ formal sessions.
The US delegation in Doha, per public reporting, includes technical-level officials. The delegation is, structurally, the Witkoff-Kushner-led team that attended Burgenstock on June 21, with the addition of the Treasury and sanctions specialists needed to operationalize the financial track.
The Doha talks are, on the operational record, the first multi-track technical session of the MOU’s 60-day clock. The framework is producing procedural outcomes. The procedural framework is alive.
What Israel said, on Wednesday
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, in a Wednesday statement, said the IDF will stay “indefinitely” in the unilateral security zones in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria. Katz, per Wednesday reporting, also said the IDF has set up multiple checkpoints along the Israel-Lebanon border and continues military operations in southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu, in a Wednesday statement, reaffirmed that the IDF will long-term stay in the southern Lebanon “security zone”. Netanyahu’s framing is, in the diplomatic vocabulary, the Israeli institutional position that the framework agreement signed in Washington on June 26 is being implemented on Israeli terms — the IDF is staying in southern Lebanon indefinitely, the framework’s pilot zones are not being operationalized on the timeline the framework committed to.
Lebanon’s health ministry, as of Wednesday, reports that Israeli attacks on Lebanon since March 2 have killed 4,297 people and wounded 12,196. The death toll has continued to rise throughout the MOU’s procedural framework. The framework’s Lebanese clause commits to the cessation of military operations. The framework’s operational ground is, on Wednesday, producing the 4,298th death since the framework was signed on June 26.
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, in a Wednesday statement, said Lebanon’s Parliament will not pass the US-Israel-Lebanon framework agreement because it does not guarantee Lebanon’s rights. Berri’s position is, in the Lebanese institutional vocabulary, the structural rejection of the framework by the Speaker of the body that would need to ratify it. The framework’s domestic Lebanese implementation is, on Wednesday, structurally blocked.
What the US said, on Wednesday
A senior US official, in a Wednesday statement, said the US will station ground troops in Lebanon and Israel to directly monitor the Lebanese Armed Forces and the IDF’s actions. The US can, per the official, “use this to pressure both sides to fulfill their commitments under the framework agreement.” CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper will not directly monitor the parties, but CENTCOM officials will report any violations to the White House.
The US troop deployment is, structurally, the operational implementation of the framework agreement on US terms. The US is, per the framework, the third party. The US is, per the Wednesday announcement, the third party with ground forces on the ground in both Lebanon and Israel. The US is now, structurally, the guarantor of the framework’s operational implementation.
The deployment is, in the diplomatic vocabulary, the structural signal that the framework’s implementation is being run by the US on the US’s terms. The US is the only party with troops in both Lebanon and Israel. The US is the framework’s operational third party, with the framework’s operational authority concentrated in the US’s hands.
What the market did, on Wednesday
Brent crude held near $73. WTI held near $70. Gold continued its decline. The market is, on Wednesday, pricing the Doha procedural framework as confirmation that the MOU’s 60-day clock is running. The market is pricing the US troop deployment as a structural commitment by the US to the framework’s operational implementation. The market is, on Wednesday, on the same page as the framework: progress without breakthrough is the maximum outcome the MOU’s first 14 days can produce, and the market has priced it as the maximum outcome.
What this is, in one sentence
The MOU’s procedural framework produced, on Wednesday, its first multi-track technical session in Doha — three working groups, indirect format, Qatar and Pakistan mediating — and on the same day, the framework’s Lebanese operational track produced the 4,297th death since the framework was signed, with the IDF staying “indefinitely” and the US stationing ground troops in both Lebanon and Israel.
The MOU is, on Wednesday evening, the document two parallel clocks are running on. The first clock is the procedural clock in Doha, with the 60-day nuclear clock now in its 14th day, with three working groups in session, with the financial track operationalizing the $6 billion frozen-funds release. The second clock is the operational clock in southern Lebanon, with the IDF’s tempo producing a death every few hours, with the framework’s pilot zones not being implemented, with the Lebanese Parliament refusing to ratify the framework, with the US stationing ground troops to enforce the framework.
The two clocks are, on Wednesday, running on different tempos. The procedural clock is, in the technical sense, producing procedural outcomes — three working groups, a financial track, a mediation track. The operational clock is, in the operational sense, producing deaths. The MOU is, on Wednesday, the document the procedural clock is running inside, and the document the operational clock is running against. The MOU is, structurally, holding on the procedural track and bleeding on the operational track.
A working group is the public expression of a deal’s procedural implementation. A death toll is the public expression of a deal’s operational implementation. On Wednesday, in the technical sense, the Doha talks produced three working groups on the procedural track, southern Lebanon produced 4,297 deaths on the operational track, and the US stationed ground troops on both sides of the border to enforce the framework. The deal’s procedural clock is, on Wednesday, running. The deal’s operational clock is, on Wednesday, bleeding. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, the document two parallel clocks are running on. The clocks are, on Wednesday evening, running on different tempos. The deal is, on Wednesday evening, alive on one clock and dying on the other.
— Mr. White