On Monday at the G7 in Évian-les-Bains, the President of the United States said the deal with Iran is in Phase 2. The MOU has been signed, digitally, between Vance and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Hormuz will fully reopen by the Friday ceremony. The 60-day nuclear clock is, in the President’s words, “easier than Phase 1.”
The same day, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces published a number: eighty-four. That is the count, by Iran’s tally, of ceasefire violations by the Israel Defense Forces in southern Lebanon since the MOU was reached. The number is, almost certainly, a count of incidents Iran has logged since 14 June — across roughly 48 hours. That is approximately one violation every 35 minutes, in the most generous possible reading.
The same day, Jotaro Tamura, chief executive of Mitsui OSK Lines — the world’s largest tanker operator by vessel count — told the Financial Times that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal shipping levels for “at least a couple of weeks, or even a month.” Shipowners, he said, want to see clear evidence that the deal translates to safe passage. They are not yet willing to commit vessels.
The same day, Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 Q4 Brent forecast from $90 to $80, and its 2027 average from $80 to $75, citing earlier-than-expected Gulf supply recovery. Goldman also said the risks are still skewed to the upside: in a pessimistic scenario, Brent returns to $130+ if Hormuz is disrupted again.
The MOU is in force. The document is being honoured only in the parts each signatory chose to honour. The implementation is where the deal lives or dies.
What “Phase 2” actually means
In Trump’s framing on Monday, the deal has two phases. Phase 1 is the MOU: immediate cessation of military operations on all fronts, opening of Hormuz, unfreezing of assets in tranches, lifting of naval blockade, $25 billion in Iranian frozen assets plus a $300 billion reconstruction package, electronic signing over the weekend. Phase 2 is the 60-day negotiation on Iran’s nuclear programme, US unilateral sanctions lifting, and a loss-compensation mechanism. Iran’s missile programme and proxy support are off the Phase 2 agenda.
Phase 2 starts on Friday at the Swiss ceremony. The clock is, in Trump’s words, “easier” — meaning the political hard work of the MOU is done, and what remains is technical negotiation between Iranian nuclear negotiators and US special envoy Steve Witkoff.
That is the optimistic reading. The market, in the form of Goldman Sachs, is now pricing Phase 1 outcomes and adding a 60-day optionality on Phase 2. The market is not, yet, pricing the 84 Lebanese violations or the tanker operators’ stated position on the Strait.
What the 84 violations actually are
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ, the operational command of the Iranian Armed Forces, published the count on Monday afternoon Tehran time. The statement, in full: “Since the Memorandum of Understanding was reached, the Israeli army has violated the ceasefire agreement in southern Lebanon 84 times, and continues to commit crimes and massacres against innocent Lebanese people.”
The statement is operational, not political. It is the kind of statement a military command publishes when it is building a public evidentiary record for a future diplomatic or military action. Iran is doing what Israel has done for two decades: documenting ceasefire violations one incident at a time, with the explicit understanding that the documentation is the predicate for the next strike.
The number itself is structurally important. A violation count of 84 in 48 hours is the kind of rate that, if sustained for the 60-day Phase 2 window, would generate 25,000 logged violations. The Iranian command is establishing that, whatever the MOU says about Lebanon, the IDF’s behaviour on the ground in southern Lebanon has not changed. The MOU’s Lebanese clause is, in the operational record, not being honoured.
The IDF has not publicly disputed the 84 count. It has, per Lebanese state media, continued air and ground operations in southern Lebanon through Monday.
What the tankers are not doing
The single most important commercial fact on Monday is that Mitsui OSK Lines, the world’s largest tanker operator by vessel count, is not yet willing to send ships through Hormuz. Tamura’s framing: “What will have to come in place is not just a simple agreement between the relevant countries, but it has to be material and translated into the real situations in the Strait of Hormuz, so that shipping lines can make their judgments.”
Translation: tanker operators need to see safe passage in practice, not in text. They need to see IRGC Navy traffic management, a deconflicted right-of-way system, and the absence of boarding or seizure incidents, before they will commit vessels and crew.
The deal says Hormuz opens. The operators are not yet convinced. The market, in the form of Lloyd’s List and TankerTrackers.com, is not yet reporting the volume of vessel movements that would correspond to “open.”
There is also a substantive insurance question. War-risk premiums for VLCCs transiting Hormuz were approximately 1% of hull value during the war. They fell to roughly 0.4% on Sunday. They are not, as of Monday, falling further. Insurance markets, which price based on actual incident rates rather than political announcements, are not yet treating the opening as fully realised.
What the Iranian side is doing
Three Iranian actions on Monday are worth watching.
Khatam al-Anbiya’s 84-violation statement. The statement is, in form, a complaint. In substance, it is the start of an evidentiary record. The 84 number will be cited by Iran in any future Phase 2 negotiation as evidence that Israel is not operating in good faith on the MOU’s core concession to Iran. The number, and any subsequent violations, become the political cover for Iranian retaliation or for a future Iranian walk-back from the deal.
Iran’s oil export restart. Per US officials cited on Monday, Iran will be permitted to export oil and fuel “immediately” after the MOU was signed. Sanctions on banking, transport, and insurance for Iranian oil exports will be waived. Iran has, per the Iranian system, approximately 120 million barrels of crude currently loaded and waiting in the Gulf. The market is going to see the first commercially significant Iranian crude export within 48 hours of the Friday ceremony. That is the first test of whether the US side can hold the sanctions-waiver architecture together.
Wang Yi’s phone call with Pakistan’s Dar. The Chinese Foreign Minister spoke by phone Monday evening with the Pakistani Deputy PM/FM. Dar briefed on Phase 1 MOU completion, thanked China for its support during mediation, and the two agreed to continue coordination to maintain peace momentum. China is now, in the public diplomacy record, a co-architect of the deal’s diplomatic architecture. The phone call is not, on its own, a foreign policy event. It is a signal that the Chinese state is interested in being associated with the document — which gives Beijing a stake in its survival.
What to watch in the next 72 hours
The first Iranian crude export. If a commercially significant Iranian tanker is loaded at an Iranian terminal and crosses Hormuz without incident by Friday, the deal is on track. If the first attempt is boarded, seized, or turned back, the 60-day clock starts with a violation.
The next Israeli strike in southern Lebanon. Israel has, on the record, said it will not withdraw. Iran has, on the record, counted 84 violations. The first incident of a week starting today will, by Iran’s framing, become violation 85. The question is whether the 60-day clock survives the first 100.
Goldman’s $130 pessimistic scenario. The bank has moved its base case down by $10 but kept the upside risk structure intact. If a single incident — a tanker boarded, an Israeli strike on a Lebanese village that kills 50+, a Houthi missile at a US base — generates an Iran response, the market will reprice to the pessimistic case in a single session.
The Friday ceremony. Trump is travelling. Pakistan is sending the PM. Iran’s Ghalibaf is the senior signatory. The question is whether Netanyahu sends a low-level Israeli observer, refuses to send anyone, or sends a meaningful delegation. The Israeli decision will determine whether Phase 2 is a US-Iran negotiation, or a US-Iran negotiation held under Israeli veto.
What this is, in one sentence
A deal that the United States calls “Phase 2” was, on the same day, recorded by Iran as having 84 violations, by the world’s largest tanker operator as not yet commercially usable, and by Goldman Sachs as having $50 of upside risk against the new base case.
A document honoured only in the parts each signatory chose to honour is, by definition, a forecast. The forecast on Monday is that the 60-day clock will be tested in real time by the 84th violation, the 85th, and the 100th. The deal survives as long as the count of violations stays below the threshold Iran is willing to accept. Iran is not, on Monday, telling us what that threshold is.
A deal held together by an evidentiary count of ceasefire violations is being held together by the assumption that the count will not become the reason to walk back. The number on Monday was 84. By Friday, it will be higher. The question is how much higher, and who is counting.
— Mr. White