The deal was signed on Sunday. Then Israel bombed Beirut on Sunday afternoon. Then the President of the United States, in a televised press availability at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, said that the deal with Iran is “now complete,” that the Strait of Hormuz is opening “toll-free,” and that he had just authorised the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Then the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, the regime’s second-ranking official, confirmed that he was the Iranian signatory. Then the Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, in a separate televised statement from Tel Aviv, said that the Israel Defense Forces will not withdraw from Lebanon, will not honour the document’s Lebanese clause, and that Israel “reserves the right to act with full force” against any Iranian retaliation. Then the President of the United States, again on camera, said Benjamin Netanyahu “lacks judgment” and was “trying to drag us back into the war.”
That was Sunday. The MOU is in force. The third party is not.
What was signed and who signed it
The Sunday signing, per multiple sources, was digital. Vice President JD Vance signed the document for the United States on Saturday. The Iranian signatory, per Reuters citing unnamed US officials, was Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. The official ceremony — the one with the handshakes, the photo op, the signed paper on the table — is scheduled for Friday the 19th in Switzerland. Trump has said he will travel to attend in person.
The choice of Ghalibaf as the Iranian signatory is the most underweighted political fact in the entire Sunday file. Iran’s negotiating team has been led, throughout this process, by Foreign Minister Araghchi. Iran’s security-state decision-making is dominated by the IRGC. The choice of the parliament speaker — the third-ranking figure in the regime, behind only Khamenei and the president, and the official most identified with the IRGC faction in the post-2024 political settlement — is a signal that the document is being signed by the security establishment, not by the diplomats. The IRGC has signed off. Pezeshkian, on the record, is being asked to be the public face of a deal negotiated and signed by the people who have been blocking his political power for two years.
That is not a sustainable political equilibrium. It is, however, the equilibrium that the document has been signed under, and the next 60 days of the nuclear file will test whether it can hold.
What the MOU contains, in the version the market saw on Sunday
The text published by the US side on Sunday matches the Iranian text that IRNA released on Friday. The 14 points reduce to four operational commitments and one set of exclusions.
Operational commitments.
- Immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
- US lifts naval blockade of Iran; Hormuz reopens under Iranian and Omani joint management, with Iran continuing to charge transit fees in a future modified framework.
- $25 billion in Iranian frozen assets unfrozen in tranches; $300 billion reconstruction package from the US and allies.
- 60-day post-signing nuclear negotiation on: peaceful nuclear program, US unilateral sanctions lifting, loss compensation mechanism.
Exclusions. Iran’s missile programme. Iran’s support for regional proxies. Both explicitly off the agenda for the 60-day talks.
The uranium question, now narrowed. Iran has, per The New York Times, agreed to dilute its 60% enriched uranium stockpile down to 3.7% (reactor fuel) and 20% (medical isotope production) inside Iran, under IAEA supervision. The US has dropped its previous demand that the uranium be physically shipped to the United States for dilution. This is the most consequential single concession Iran has made in the 14-point text. It is also the one that most underweights the political pressure the IRGC accepted in order to make the deal work.
What Israel did and said
Two Israeli actions on Sunday set up the next four days of crisis.
The strike. The Israeli Air Force struck Beirut for the second time in two days. Targets were, per Lebanese state media, Hezbollah infrastructure in the southern suburbs. Casualty figures were not final at time of writing, but the strike came six hours after the Iranian side announced that Lebanon’s territorial integrity was “non-separable” from the MOU and that any further Israeli operation in Lebanon would be a violation of the document.
Katz’s statement. Defense Minister Israel Katz, in a televised address on Sunday evening Jerusalem time, said the IDF “will not withdraw from southern Lebanon” and that “Israel reserves the right to act with full force” against any Iranian response to Israeli operations. Katz also said Israel “cannot accept a deal that leaves Iran’s missile programme intact.” Katz’s statement is, in plain English, a public refusal by the third party to honour the document his own negotiating partner signed.
Netanyahu’s pattern. Netanyahu has not, since Friday, made a public statement on the MOU. He has been in continuous phone contact with Trump and with senior US officials, but has not appeared on camera to either endorse or reject the document. The pattern is consistent with the strategy of preserving freedom of action: refuse to commit, refuse to formally reject, and reserve the right to act unilaterally.
Trump’s public response
Trump, at the G7 press availability in Évian-les-Bains, did three things in sequence.
He confirmed the deal was complete. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. I hereby fully authorise the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorise the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
He criticised Netanyahu. Asked about the Sunday Beirut strike, Trump told reporters Netanyahu “lacks judgment” and was acting in a way that “could drag us back into the war.” The comments were on camera, in English, and were the first time a sitting US President has publicly rebuked an Israeli Prime Minister by name over a specific military operation since the 1956 Suez crisis.
He threatened the French. At the same G7, Trump announced a 100% tariff on French wine. The move was unrelated to Iran, but the optics — Trump publicly berating two of America’s longest-standing allies on the same day, in a single press availability, while announcing the end of a Middle East war — is the most fractured G7 optics since the 2003 Iraq debate.
The market’s read
The market priced the deal before Trump spoke. WTI crude dropped 4.7% on Sunday to $80.83 a barrel. Brent dropped 4% to $83.77. Both are at their lowest since March 4, the week the war began. European luxury stocks (LVMH, Kering, Hermès) are up 8-12% on the week on the reopening of the Gulf consumer market. The market is treating the MOU as a real document. The market is not, yet, pricing the Israeli position, the Lebanese clause, or the fact that the US President has now publicly broken with his own closest Middle Eastern ally on a live camera.
The war-risk premium for VLCC tankers transiting Hormuz fell from approximately 1% of hull value to roughly 0.4% in Asian trading Sunday evening. Lloyd’s List and TankerTrackers.com will give us the real data on whether traffic is actually moving.
What to watch in the next 96 hours
The Friday ceremony in Switzerland. Trump is travelling. Pakistan’s PM is attending. Iran is sending Ghalibaf. The question is whether Israel sends an observer, sends nothing, or — most likely — sends a low-level delegation whose role is to make it possible for Netanyahu to claim he was not excluded.
The first Iranian tanker. If the Strait is open toll-free, the first commercially significant Iranian crude export will be the test. Expect this to happen within 48 hours of the Friday ceremony. Watch for insurance rates to confirm the market is treating the opening as real.
The first Israeli strike in Lebanon post-signing. Katz has reserved the right. The MOU’s text does not, in Iran’s reading, give Israel that right. The first post-signing Israeli strike in southern Lebanon will trigger the first test of whether Iran’s “Lebanon is non-separable” position is policy or rhetoric.
The first 60-day clock item. The 60-day nuclear clock starts on Friday. Iran has, per the text, agreed to dilute 60% uranium down. The IAEA will need to be on the ground in Iran to verify. Iran’s parliament, the Majles, will need to ratify the dilution protocol. Both are non-trivial political processes. The first IAEA inspection inside Iran is the single most important political test of the 60-day window.
What this is, in one sentence
The United States and Iran signed a deal on Sunday; Israel publicly refused to honour it on Sunday; the President of the United States publicly rebuked Israel on Sunday — and the deal is still scheduled to be celebrated on Friday in Switzerland.
A peace agreement signed by two governments that a third government has publicly refused to honour is, at best, a regional ceasefire. The MOU holds as long as the Israeli government can be brought, through phone calls and quiet pressure, to accept operations in Lebanon it has now, on the record, refused. The 60-day clock will determine whether the operation that was rejected in May — the ground raid to seize Iran’s uranium — was indeed rejected for good, or whether the MOU has simply postponed it.
When the third party to a peace deal publicly refuses to honour the deal on the day it is signed, the deal is not a treaty. It is a forecast that one of the three parties will change its mind within sixty days. The market is pricing the deal. The forecast is the harder trade.
— Mr. White